Bush will win

Post your predictions. Mine:


Bush wins:

Easily: AL, AR, AK, AZ, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WY = 222

Close: FL 27
IA 7
MI 17
NV 5
NM 5
OH 20
WI 10
--------
91 + 222 = 313 electoral votes

Popular vote -- Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.7



UPDATE: The Plaintiff has made her prediction: Bush 52, Kerry 47; EV -- 306

Why Bush Must Win, and Kerry Must Be Defeated

Historian Paul Johnson writes the most comprehensive, most compelling argument for Bush's re-election (and perhaps as importantly, Kerry's defeat) that I have read this election season. And I have read a lot of these kinds of pieces over the last three months.

You must read this.

Memos: Balco execs said Bonds used 'roids

Who'd have thunk it?

As you may have read elsewhere, the lead singer of the 70's band Orleans has stated that he wants the Bush campaign to stop using the song "Still the One" (which he wrote) because he's not a Bush supporter. He also notes that all of the other members of the band support Kerry, as well.

Nah, you're kidding. You mean that these guys are Kerry supporters?

Rawhide

This is awesome.

Rawhide

This is awesome.

Bush strategist Dowd: "We're cautiously optimistic"

The most pro-abortion president ever?

From the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

A President John F. Kerry would shape the direction of the court, starting with the U.S. Supreme Court, filling the courts with pro-choice appointments, and rejecting pro-life judges. Kerry would be the most staunchly pro-choice president ever. At the 2003 NARAL Pro-Choice America Dinner, where he described pro-lifers as "the forces of intolerance," Kerry boasted that his maiden speech as a freshman senator had been in support of Roe vs. Wade. On Aug. 2, 1994, on the Senate floor, he stated: "The right thing to do is to treat abortions as exactly what they are -- a medical procedure that any doctor is free to provide and any pregnant woman free to obtain. Consequently, abortions should not have to be performed in tightly guarded clinics on the edge of town; they should be performed and obtained in the same locations as any other medical procedure.... [A]bortions need to be moved out of the fringes of medicine and into the mainstream of medical practice."

Sounds like a man who "personally" believes that "life begins at conception" to me. If life begins at conception, Senator, then "treating abortions as exactly what they are" would mean throwing the cuffs on doctors and women immediately after they commit them. If life begins at conception, "exactly" what abortions "are" is MURDER.

You know, it's really one thing for politicians to try and have it both ways on some issues, like taxes or the environment or farm subsidies. But this kind of hypocrisy is disgusting.

Dick Morris: "Why Bush Will Win"

I tend to think Morris is right: it's not specifically what the candidates say that matters, but rather what the candidates are talking about. Since the focus of the last week of the election has been and will continue to be Iraq/War on Terror -- issues on which President Bush has a 10-20 point lead -- Bush will prevail on Tuesday.

UPDATE: Then again, there is this theory, that the focus on the "lost explosives" story is hurting Bush in Michigan.

OK, this is getting ridiculous

As I told Bo the other day, I've had to step back from this election the last few days, as it seems to be dominating my life. That's the reason you haven't seen much action on the blog from me -- I can't possibly comment on everything that's going through my mind right now. I'm on lockdown.

I'll just throw this little nugget out there.

Tell me -- what more could the MSM do without going full-out Mr. Subliminal? "Yet President Bush has been powerless (VOTE KERRY) to halt a recent tide of bad news (BUSH'S FAULT) from surging violence (BUSH IS EVIL) and missing weapons in Iraq (WHAT A DUMBASS), to missteps by his own campaign (VOTE KERRY), to a potentially damaging new probe by his own FBI (HALLIBURTON -- FILTHY BASTARDS)."

This is getting intolerable.

Schilling = Stallion

Curt Schilling on GMA this morning:

GIBSON: "Well, well said, Curt and Shonda. You both have certainly lifelong membership now in the Red Sox nation. It was a great thing to watch, and I think everybody – whether they were great Red Sox fans or not — had to admire what this team did. It was extraordinary, and one of the great stories of sport. And sport always produces such great stories. Curt, Shonda, great to have you with us. Congratulations."

SCHILLING: "And make sure you tell everybody to vote, and vote Bush next week."

Also, He was asked by Dan Patrick recently if A-Rod slapping the ball out of Arroyo's glove was "bush league," and Schilling said, "no--it was Kerry league."

Is Ohio safe for Bush?

According to this guy, it is. A nice analysis of the GOTV efforts in Ohio.

UPDATE: Looking around this blog, and it's chock-full of statistical analysis of the various battleground states, but presented in a way that an idiot like myself can understand. (And, of course, I love having sunshine pumped up my skirt -- and this guy says Ohio and Florida are 90% safe.)

Anyway, here's the address: http://jaycost.blogspot.com/

A True Goose Hunting For Geese

You guys have to read this entry on Powerline regarding Kerry's hunting excursion. Taken collectively with the other instances in which Kerry seemed determined to prove his manhood at the expense of the truth (e.g. claiming to have run in the Boston Marathon although he couldn't say what year and there's absolutely no record of his participation), it's pretty damning (as the entry notes) and absolutely hilarious.

And you guys thought Kerry was a bad candidate...

Check this out. I'll withhold any chauvinistic thoughts I might be thinking.

Hysterical

Six Meat has much, much more on these maroons. I'm still laughing.

UPDATE: Seriously, click on the links above, and the links from those links. I am seriously doubled-over in laughter at these people. Click here. And here. And here. You will thank me.

UPDATE II: OK, now I'm actually crying. I'm dying here.

In the words of Al Gore...

"How DARE they!"

A lot has been made about THK's comments today that Laura Bush has never held a "real job" -- and rightly so. It boggles the mind that Kerry's wife could have "forgotten" that the First Lady was a librarian/teacher for nine years (a period of time lil' Ron-Ron Reagan described as "brief" on his god-awful show on MSNBC -- but that tirade will have to wait); how many times has the President said on the stump that "I like teachers so much that I married one"? But I'll give her the benefit of the doubt on that point.

I'll even take it easy on THK for not including stay-at-home mom as a "real job." While housewife is a demanding role, there is a sense in which it is not a "real job" -- you don't get paid to do it, for example. Perhaps this is what THK meant. So I'll give her that one, too.

But what pisses me off is the underlying assumption in THK's comments: that she can tell --just by looking at Laura Bush, knowing who she married, knowing where she's from and how she talks, and considering her politics -- that she must have been a housewife. (Queue Al again: "How DARE they!")

Pure elitism. Pure snot.

I told The Plaintiff about THK's comments this evening, and she picked up on this immediately. She reminded me of JK's comment during the second debate that there were only "three people in this room" who would pay more taxes in a Kerry Presidency: JK could tell, just by looking around the room of 150 voters, that only he, Bush, and Charlie Gibson earned more than $200,000 a year (or maybe I should say, Kerry + wife = more than 200K).

And this -- not the forgetfulness about LB's former occupation as teacher, not the omission of housewife in the definition of "real job" -- is what really just sets me off. It's the feeling I get when classmates assume that I must not have made good grades because I have decided to go back down South after law school. (Not true -- not to toot the horn, but top 20% -- pretty good for a kid from the 49th best public school system in the country.) Or the outrage I felt when one of my classmates, a Harvard College grad, crashed the interview session of one of the Birmingham firms and stated that they must be happy to get anyone from UVa. (He was then informed by one of the interviewing attorneys that he graduated, ahem, first in his class at UVa and clerked for CJ Rehnquist. Last I heard, the kid still hadn't found a job for next summer, despite interviewing with firms in just about every major city.)

Such enlightenment. Such tolerance. Such open-mindedness. Such BS.

Oh boy

MSR, check this out from Six Meat.

Cuckoo Carter

Via LGF, from Hardball interview with Jimmy Carter:


MATTHEWS: Let me ask you the question about—this is going to cause some trouble with people—but as an historian now and studying the Revolutionary War as it was fought out in the South in those last years of the War, insurgency against a powerful British force, do you see any parallels between the fighting that we did on our side and the fighting that is going on in Iraq today?
CARTER: Well, one parallel is that the Revolutionary War, more than any other war up until recently, has been the most bloody war we’ve fought. I think another parallel is that in some ways the Revolutionary War could have been avoided. It was an unnecessary war.
Had the British Parliament been a little more sensitive to the colonial’s really legitimate complaints and requests the war could have been avoided completely, and of course now we would have been a free country now as is Canada and India and Australia, having gotten our independence in a nonviolent way.

Hendrix to the Tide

That's absolutely huge. Bama undoubtedly has a top 5 class with Hendrix on board--maybe even top 2. This after pulling in the #8 class in the country last year. If Gottfried continues to grow as a coach and can keep the talent from leaving too early, we are in store for some great years.

And to think I once verbally assaulted Richard's dad with an expletive-laden tirade.

Read David Brooks today

I know he's not your favorite, Bo, but he is all over it today.

Money quote:

But there is a deeper assumption, which has marred Democratic politics for years. Some Democrats have been unable to face the reality that people have been voting for Republicans because they agree with them. So these Democrats have invented the comforting theory that they've been losing because they are too virtuous for the country.

Back at it

Nice break last week.

Kerry's Undeclared War

Mark Bai shows that Kerry doesn't really believe in the "war on terror."

Tortfeasor's quick debate analysis

Can't write much now, as I'll got to prepare to travel several hundred miles this weekend, so here are the quick highlights:

Winner: Bush. And God I loved it when he just ignored Charlie Gibson.

Style: Bush appeared a little too jacked up for the first 15-20 minutes -- reminded me of Uncle Leo on Seinfeld screaming into the telephone because he doesn't understand how a telephone works. However, Bush yelling is better than Bush stammering and scowling, and after a few minutes, Bush settled down.

Kerry looked a little cartoonish tonight, I thought, which may be a result of the format. That is, Kerry looks better than Bush behind a podium, whereas Bush moves more naturally and decisively than Kerry's lanky frame allows him.

Also, I think Bush's straightforward approach is pretty effective in contrast to Kerry's meandering answers. The federal funding for abortion question was the perfect example.

Humor: simply put, Bush gets it and Kerry, um, doesn't. Kerry's apparent Red Sox joke was abysmal. Bush's "need some wood?" line was priceless.

Substance: it's really hard to judge the "substance" without injecting one's political biases. Obviously, I think the issues are pretty squarely on Bush's side, but I do fear that too many people do not really understand that the War on Terror is a REAL WAR against a new kind of enemy. If the voters don't get this, Bush loses, as Kerry's Iraq-as-a-diversion charges will begin to make sense.

Scary moment: when Bush mentioned the words "Dred Scott," I almost hyperventilated. I really thought Bush was about to make the gaffe that would cost him the election. Thankfully, Bush somehow made it come together and basically got the holding right. And then I found myself a little impressed that W. knew what Dred Scott was.

Bottom line: Kerry is a goob, and Bush is the cool kid. Kerry's incessant "I have a plan" is enough to make me contemplate suicide; his constant hand motions are absurdly unnatural and coached. He is the kid in AP English who, when the teacher made everyone learn a Shakespearean sonnet, would practice at home in front of mirror so that he could be the best in the class, even though everyone would get the same grade regardless. And of course, the rest of the class would snicker and act like they were sneezing or coughing. (MSR, he is Ben Gray.)

Bush's strut, his wink, his use of the plural "internets" reminds me of the coolest man on the planet: Big Daddy (my grandfather).

Bush's speech

UPDATE: I was just reading Bush's speech again. If you haven't read it yet, YOU NEED TO READ IT.

Now, if only the president can make these same points in a debate format...

UPDATE, II: Because I fear some of you won't take my advice, here are a couple of beautiful lines:


My opponent's endless back-and-forth on Iraq is part of a larger misunderstanding. In the war on terror, Senator Kerry is proposing policies and doctrines that would weaken America and make the world more dangerous. His — Senator Kerry approaches the world with a September the 10th mind-set. He declared in his convention speech that "any attack will be met with a swift and certain response." That was the mind-set of the 1990s, while al Qaeda was planning the attacks on America. After September the 11th, our object in the war on terror is not to wait for the next attack and respond, but to prevent attacks by taking the fight to the enemy....

Tyrants and terrorists will not give us polite notice before they launch an attack on our country.
(Applause.) I refuse to stand by while dangers gather. In the world after September the 11th, the path to safety is the path of action. And I will continue to defend the people of the United States of America. (Applause.) Thank you all. Thank you all....


Instead, the Senator would have America bend over backwards to satisfy a handful of governments with agendas different from our own. This is my opponent's alliance-building strategy: brush off your best friends, fawn over your critics. And that is no way to gain the respect of the world....

Cuckoo for Kerry Puffs?

Six Meat in (not-so) rare form.

The fundamental difference

In class this morning, several students around me, all Donks, celebrated what they believed to be a victory for the Kerry-Edwards team. One girl summed it up: “I thought they were about even until the closing statements. Edwards was soooooo much better; Cheney was terrible. Edwards was all hope and sunshine, clearly talking to the jury; Cheney was all war and death.”

No and yes.

First – Cheney was incisive, cogent, articulate, and calm. His closing statement, I thought, was brilliant, presenting himself as a serious man for serious times. Edwards, on the other hand, was at times slick and quick, but more often seemed to searching for substance. (This effect was especially apparent when he would draw out certain conjunctions, like “aaaaaaaand…,” “buuuuuuuuuuuuut…”, and so forth.) I thought Edwards’ closing statement, with the story about his father blah blah, was a terrible attempt to analogize personal experience to the current circumstances. It seemed obvious to me that he even knew it was a tremendous stretch.

Now that we have that out of the way…

The closing statements should tell the American people all they need to know about these two tickets. One ticket is the September 10th ticket. The other is the September 12th ticket.

John Edwards is the perfect September 10th politician, and his selection as Kerry’s running mate a perfect September 10th political decision: young, good-looking, hopeful, pain-feeling, and possibly able to deliver a state otherwise not in play (won’t happen, of course). His selection, just like his position on Iraq, was based entirely on electoral expediency, certainly not on Edwards’ fitness to serve as commander in chief. Theme song: “Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow,” or perhaps “Imagine.” Maybe “Carolina in my Mind.”

Dick Cheney, and the president, are September 12th leaders, and although the decision was made prior to 9/11, Bush’s selection of Cheney as his running mate reflected September 12th thinking: substance over style, reality over fantasy, guts over glamour. Theme song: “Enter Sandman,” or most appropriately, “Head Like a Hole” by Nine Inch Nails:

“Head like a hole,Black as your soul!I'd rather die,Than give you control!... ”Bow down before the one you serve,You're going to get what you deserve...”

This election really is that simple. One ticket recognizes the true nature of our enemy. The other promises to “hunt down and kill the terrorists,” but one senses that they mean this in a retributive sense – the terrorists from 9/11, dummy! – rather than in a pre-emptive and strategic sense.

And this, in my opinion, is the way Bush should frame the election: is the war on terror simply about trying to round up terrorists, or are we engaged in a war against islamofascism? The people’s answer to that question should decide this election.

A certain public representative

just came in and said, "man, I'd hate to debate Dick Cheney...he was awesome." He later followed up with, "I love Dick Cheney...Cheney kicked his ass."

It was great.

The Plaintiff says it all

She just said, "Cheney's calm -- he speaks softly, but carries a big stick." Indeed.

UPDATE: Not to inundate y'all with The Plaintiff's wisdom, but: "Why don't we drink every time Edwards says 'we have a plan'?"

Kerry's "No Nukes" stance

One Fine Jay makes some great points, insightful and original. Read this.

Ad Report Card -- Slate

Body spray?

Could Kerry rise to the challenge?

Kerry = Carter?

Unbelievable

I don't know if you guys have seen this yet or not (it was linked on Drudge), but this story is absolutely incredible. I won't ruin it for you. I'll just say that this left me speechless.

Kerry cheated

In clear material violation of the negotiated-and-agreed-upon debate rules, video clearly shows that Kerry took what appears to be a piece of paper out of his jacket pocket and unfolded it as he stood behind the podium.

Can democracy grow in Iraq?

Read this column, and please comment.

Before you flip out about the Newsweek poll...

...see this post from Powerline:

UPDATE: Reader Meg Kreikemeier points out that according to RealClearPolitics, Newsweek's most recent poll included 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 independents. This compares to Newsweek's published data for their most recent prior poll, which showed President Bush with a comfortable lead: 391 Republicans,300 Democrats and 270 independents. Yes, if you drop 46 Republicans and add 64 Democrats, you will get considerably better results for the Democratic nominee. This is a good reminder of why poll data always need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially until you see the underlying data.

Berkeley

Just click. (Via Vodkapundit.)

Anybody watch GameDay?

The story about how thirty Georgia players ride those little scooters around campus was hilarious.

David Pollack: "You can just hop on 'em and get anywhere so fast, you know all the fat kids are gonna have 'em."

Lots of "bear on a tricycle" jokes, too.

(I bring this up b/c MSR and I bitch about the unbelievable proliferation of those little scooters in recent months.)

MSR -- Need you to weigh in

...on the "Eastern Motors" commercials featuring Lavar Arrington and Carmelo Anthony that appear in the DC television market.

Bo comes through -- AGAIN

The latest from our very own Bo in the Daily Iowan is must-read material. Really on top of his game this week.

Unfortunately, Bo doesn't write his own headlines--the headline doesn't really reflect the thrust of the column.

It's hard to pick a money quote -- the whole thing is money. Here's an excerpt:

Yet do liberals think Al Qaeda and the insurgents in Iraq are oblivious to American politics? Does the left think al-Zarqawi and his disciples do not tremble with glee when John Kerry alludes to looming American troop withdrawal in his stump speeches? If the American public can sense Bush is stronger on terrorism than Kerry, as the polls overwhelmingly indicate, certainly terrorists are attuned to this disparity as well. Terrorists are also more aware of which candidate would wage war on countries that harbor them, without regard for the lurching, lethargic mechanism that is the United Nations. This conclusion is self-evident, which is why Orrin Hatch notes that terrorists will attempt to influence this election in favor of Kerry and why Richard Armitage said the Iraqi insurgents wish to turn this election against President Bush.

Scalia Update From the Cohna

RE: SCALIA [Stanley Kurtz]

Kathryn, re the Scalia remarks, I just received the following comment from Ed Whelan, President of the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington DC, where Scalia made the remarks I heard:

Justice Scalia gave a speech here on Sept. 20. (That’s the one Stanley Kurtz attended.) In that speech, he made the point that even if one were to adopt arguendo the assumption that orgies are socially beneficial, that assumption wouldn’t entitle judges to strike down laws against orgies. As a former clerk of his, I am certain that he made this same arguendo point at Harvard. Evidently it was a tad too subtle for the Crimson reporter.

Chatter around the law school

Things overheard about the debate up at the law school:

-- Many Kerry supporters do not feel like Kerry really "won" the debate last night; they felt that the post-debate spin was positive for Bush enough to blunt Kerry's "victory."

-- Overheard a Democrat say that he was totally frustrated through the first half-hour of the debate--that Bush killed Kerry during that period. I felt the same way. Bush came out much stronger than Kerry, I thought, and closed well. However, Bush really struggled from 9:30 to 10:15 as Kerry hit his stride. A lot of this has to do with the fact that Bush's positions are clear and simple: go and kill the terrorists where they are, do not wait for them to strike again in the US, and protect US interests regardless of international support. There are only so many ways to say this, and I think Bush became frustrated with trying to fill time with new ways to re-articulate his clear positions. He is no wordsmith. And I believe 90 minutes is waaaaaay too long for a presidential debate, especially when limited to a single topic.

-- Overheard two people talking about the debate while I was looking at the softball schedule. Both agreed the debate was pretty much a draw, and felt that the post-debate spin was even for Bush and Kerry. One of them said to the other, "Is Andrea Mitchell not the most biased reporter you have ever seen? It's unbelievable! She so clearly wants Kerry to win." Thinking that I was in the presence of fellow conservatives, I said, "Good grief, I know. Her face just gives it away." He responded, "God, I know--and I'm a Democrat." How's that for your column, Bo?

-- Overheard two other Dems arguing over whether Kerry has nailed down a coherent position on Iraq. One believes he has, the other feels that Kerry has truly painted himself into a corner, and the Bush team will continue to exploit this for all it's worth.

Winning ugly

Back in the early and mid 90s, I and several thousand other Alabama fans used to gripe, whine, bitch and moan about the conservative, boring style of Stallings-coached Crimson Tide teams. Every week on “Tide Talk,” Bama fans would ask the same questions: why don’t you throw it more, Coach? Why not go up top on first down? Why do you run it up the middle 60 times a game? Why did you run out the clock before the end of the half instead of trying to put another score on the board? Why did you kick the 20 yard field goal instead of trying to stick it in for a TD?

When Stallings retired after 7 seasons as Bama’s head coach, we glanced back over his record, a little surprised at the results: 70 wins in 7 seasons, and a national championship to boot. Not bad—actually, pretty damn dominant.

Every time I watch W. debate, I get that familiar Stallings feeling. His opponent, time after time, leaves a hole in his defense big enough to drive a truck through—in this case, the vote against troop funding, or the “coerced and bribed” comment, or the suggestion that Allawi is a mere puppet of the U.S., or take your pick of about ten other examples—and what does W. do? Three more yards and a cloud of unintelligible gibberish. Sometimes, W. manages to hit the hole, but a la Dennis Riddle, he trips over his own feet and takes a facemask full of turf; other times, he looks up top to a wide-open receiver, but a la Freddie Kitchens, he tosses the ball three rows deep into the stands or bounces it off his lineman’s helmet. I scream and cuss at the television while banging my forehead into the coffee table.

And then the 90 minutes is up. The post-debate reaction begins. And once again, W. wins ugly by pounding away and refusing to fumble.

Yes, I know the popular opinion is that Kerry “won” the debate—but so did Gore in 2000. W. is playing a different game; “winning” the debates is the political equivalent of racking up gaudy offensive stats. Meanwhile, Bush remains focused on the November 2nd scoreboard—the only statistic that matters at all.

As Kerry scored big Debate Club points, he managed to turn the ball over a couple of times—most notably with the “global test” comment. And just as Gene Stallings knew, winning the turnover battle—screwing up less than your opponent—is the ultimate key to winning the game.

And looking back at Bush’s record—taking apart the vaunted Ann Richards, staying out of the way as Professor Gore self-destructed—one must admit: whether Bush is a good debater or not, he is an effective politician. Bebes Stallings would be proud.