Saturday, November 27, 2004

2008 is coming up soon

and according to Carl Jeffers, things look peachy for the Dems. Jeffers' biography line (at the bottom of the article above) states that he is a national TV political commentator, but after reading his essay, which is "analysis" in the same way that the noises I make while showering are "singing," it's hard to imagine him sitting across from, say, Michael Barone without Barone collapsing into gales of laughter every time Jeffers opens his mouth.

I realize this sounds a little harsh, but go read the article and you'll quickly see that I'm actually being quite generous. Example: Jeffers believes that the '08 Republican will be either McCain or Giuliani, and when I say "believes," it means that he ridicules the notion of Frist, Pataki, and others. How he can deduce this already, I have no idea on several grounds: first, we're still three years away from any primary. Secondly, I'm not sure how easy it is to dismiss Frist or another candidate who is red instead of purple. Remember that primary/caucus voters are comprised of the people who are essentially the base, not a bunch of Andrew Sullivan readers - their predilection to nominate an abortion-rights, gay-rights candidate is not enormous, to say the least. Moderates have been nominated before, but to claim that it is a foregone conclusion borders on rank stupidity.

Jeffers also supplies us with some incisive post-election numerical analysis, by dismissing voting trends (such as the huge rise in Hispanics that voted Republican) in favor of noting the raw stats themselves. This is so laughable that it's hardly worth the trouble it took to summarize, but let me just say this: Hispanics are the fastest growing segment of the population and if the Dems aren't slightly worried by the gains we made this year among that demographic, then they better plan on being a minority party for a long time to come. Jeffers' insistence that the trends of this year's election aren't indicative of a shift among the general electorate (remember, the Dems were more mobilized this year than ever before, at least in my young memory, and they still lost), and even more so, that this shift isn't worth the scrutiny and/or worry of the Dem bosses, is utter nonsense. There are better liberal writers at my half-witted student newspaper.


At 8:43 AM, Blogger Tortfeasor said...

I can't stop laughing. How does one explain how this guy got published in the Seattle Times?

Where to start? Bo, you've already pretty much taken it apart. I'll say that there's no way McCain or Giuliani will be the Republican nominee in '08. No freaking way. Note that the only people who seem to think these guys would even sniff the Republican nomination aren't Republicans. I like Giuliani as much as the next guy, but he's got a shady past personal life that the party would rather not have to deal with, he's very pro-choice, and he's liberal on many other social issues. Like you said, Bo, the average Republican primary voter will see "pro-choice" and run in the opposite direction.

McCain? The Republican higher-ups will never, ever allow this to happen. He is viewed as a Donk in Elephant clothing, at least on everything but national security issues. Won't happen.

My money's on Frist. How this "journalist" can just dismiss the idea as absurd...well, that's what's absurd.

And Hillary Clinton? You've got to be kidding me! For every red-state security mom who switches her vote to HRC for the "historical significance" (worked for Mondale-Ferraro, eh?), there will be three blue-state guys who are secretly terrified of giving a power-hungry bitch access to the highest office in the land.

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